The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to reduce U.S. life expectancy by an average of 1.13 years, a decline that's even greater among Black and Latino populations, according to a study published Jan. 14 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Had the pandemic not occurred, researches estimate U.S. life expectancy at birth would have been 78.61 years in 2020. The estimated 1.13 year decline brings the average U.S. life expectancy to 77.48 years — the lowest since 2003. The estimate is based on a medium scenario in which 321,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths occur, with the average life expectancy cut rising to 1.22 years in a higher mortality scenario with 348,000 deaths. The CDC reported 387,255 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. as of Jan. 15, indicating the life expectancy decline may be closer to the study's high mortality scenario estimate.
More key findings based on the medium scenario:
- Life expectancy at birth for the Black and Latino population is expected to be cut by 2.10 years and 3.05 years, respectively. The estimated life expectancy decline among whites is 0.68 years.
- In the absence of COVID-19, life expectancy at age 65 is estimated to have been 19.40 years. That's expected to decline by 0.87 years. Among the white population, the life expectancy decline at age 65 is 0.63 years. For the Black and Latino population, the estimates are 1.73 years and 2.24 years, respectively.
"The U.S. reduction in 2020 life expectancy is projected to exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the U.S. — which already had a life expectancy below that of all other high-income developed nations prior to the pandemic — will see its life expectancy fall even farther behind its peers," researchers wrote.
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