The nation’s seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases was 92,602 as of Aug. 22, marking a 16 percent decrease in the last 14 days, according to data tracked by The New York Times. Mayo Clinic’s COVID-19 map forecasting tool projects the nation’s case rate will drop from 27.3 cases per 100,000 on Aug. 23 to 24.4 per 100,000 on Sept. 3.
U.S. cases have fallen for four consecutive weeks. The latest CDC data shows new cases dropped by nearly 10 percent last week, though COVID-19 case trends are just one measure of virus activity and likely represent an undercount given the widespread use of at-home tests. Hospitalizations and deaths have also been trending down in recent weeks. As of Aug. 22, the daily average of people hospitalized with COVID-19 was 39,963, marking an 8 percent decrease over the last 14 days, according to the Times.
Becker’s calculated the rate at which COVID-19 case rates are expected to change using current and predicted figures from Mayo Clinic’s tool. Here are five states projected to see the largest drops in daily cases by Sept. 3:
Nevada — 53 percent
Colorado — 35 percent
New Mexico — 30 percent
Utah — 28 percent
Washington — 28 percent
Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. Forecasts were unavailable for Alaska and Hawaii. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in the calculations in this table. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker’s pulled the forecast values at 8:30 a.m. CDT Aug. 23.
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