COVID-19 deaths to rise through June, CDC forecasts

COVID-19 deaths will likely increase nationwide through the end of the month, CDC modeling suggests. 

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 306 as of June 10, up 18.6 percent from the previous week's average, according to the CDC.

The agency's ensemble COVID-19 forecast from 20 modeling groups suggests this trend will continue, with 1,600 to 4,200 new deaths likely reported in the week ending July 2, which translates to a daily total of 228.5 to 600 deaths. This tally would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 1,014,000 to 1,028,000. 

Two more COVID-19 forecasts to know:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 37.6 percent in the next two weeks, a slower rate of increase than projected in late May, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 88,740.6 cases on June 11 to 122,105 by June 25. During the omicron surge, this figure hit a peak of more than 800,000, according to data tracked by The New York Times. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 33.3 cases per 100,000 population to 37.2 per 100,000 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 1,700 to 11,100 new admissions likely reported July 1, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 17 modeling groups.

Hospitalizations are increasing, but the nation's current seven-day average (29,463) is still far lower than the more than 150,000 seven-day average seen at the height of the omicron surge, according to data tracked by the Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values June 13 at 9:30 a.m. CDT.

 

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