COVID-19 admissions to rise through mid-June, CDC forecasts

Modeling suggests COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths will continue to rise in the U.S. through at least mid-June as the highly transmissible omicron subvariants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 spread nationwide. 

Three COVID-19 forecasts to know:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 84.1 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 77,203.3 cases on May 29 to 142,127 by June 12. During the omicron surge last winter, this figure hit a peak of more than 800,000, according to data tracked by The New York Times. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 34.2 cases per 100,000 population to 43.3 per 100,000 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to rise in the next four weeks, with 1,000 to 11,800 new admissions likely reported June 17, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups.

Hospitalizations are increasing, but the nation's current seven-day average (26,781 as of May 30) is still far lower than the more than 150,000 hospitalizations seen at the height of the omicron surge, according to the Times.

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths are also expected to increase over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 19 modeling groups. The forecast projects 2,100 to 5,300 deaths likely reported in the week ending June 18, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 1,011,000 to 1,022,000.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values May 31 at 8:15 a.m. CDT.

 

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