From an aging population and clinical workforce shortages to increasing budget and cost challenges, a recent report from Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm, has broken down the societal changes that it expects to reshape the healthcare industry by 2035.
Here are four expected changes from the report:
1. As the senior population continues to grow, 1 in 6 Americans are now 65 and older. The report suggested that seniors will make up around 1 in 4 Americans by 2035, which will increase healthcare service demands. With Medicare bed utilization more than four times higher than commercial bed utilization, the report expects an increase in overall bed days and further government budget strains.
2. Regarding workforce changes, the working-to-senior population ratio has decreased from 4-to-1 in 2015 to 3-to-1, according to an Oliver Wyman analysis. By 2035, the report estimated that we will see a 2-to-1 worker-to-senior ratio, which will create projected demand gaps of 10.6% for primary care physicians, 7.5% for specialists and 5.9% for nurses. Due to increased projected turnover, the report said employers will need to locate return on investment faster.
3. Medicare spending hit $744 billion in 2022, with Medicare outlays projected to increase to $1.7 trillion in 2033. The report suggested money-making avenues in government-sponsored programs will either be tightened or eliminated as the government seeks to reduce costs further like increasing drug price negotiations, going after programs seen as loopholes, or reducing 340B and provider-based billing.
4. As hospitals across the country continue to face challenges like reimbursement rates, aging populations, payer mix and cost, the report expects providers to drive investment into alternative care sites like ambulatory surgery centers and hospital at home. The report also expects an evolution of new asynchronous care models to drive cost down, ensure payers don't reroute services and maintain quality.