COVID-19 cases expected to rise through June, Mayo forecasts

COVID-19 modeling suggests cases will continue to rise nationwide through the end of June, while hospitalizations and deaths remain stable through early July. 

Three forecasts to know:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 45.9 percent in the next two weeks, a slower rate of increase than projected in late May, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 73,783.9 cases on June 19 to 107,662 by July 3. During the omicron surge, this figure hit a peak of more than 800,000, according to data tracked by The New York Times. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 31.3 cases per 100,000 population to 32.8 per 100,000 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 1,300 to 10,100 new admissions likely reported on July 8, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 17 modeling groups.

While COVID-19 hospitaliations have been rising since mid-April, the nation's current seven-day average (30,242) is still far lower than the more than 150,000 seven-day average seen at the height of the omicron surge, according to data tracked by the Times.

Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are also projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 19 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,400 to 4,900 deaths likely reported in the week ending July 9, which translates to a daily total of 200 to 700 deaths.

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 311 as of June 20, up 17 percent in the last two weeks, according to data from the Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values June 13 at 9:05 a.m. CDT.


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