COVID-19 peak dates: Updated projections for each state

Nearly 30 states are projected to see peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 in the last two weeks of April and early May, according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through the end of May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

IHME's model is updated regularly as new data becomes available. In the most recent update, the daily death data reported through Colorado's Department of Public Health and Environment website was added. IHME also used the Illinois Department of Health COVID-19 website to re-extract daily death data and benchmark inputs against the state's routinely updated 30-day cumulative COVID-19 death count. Access more information about the changes and the projected peak in daily deaths here

Some have criticized IHME's model, arguing its projections for total deaths shouldn't be used for government decision-making. However, the model continues to be widely used and influential in planning and preparation because of a lack of national models provided by the CDC or other federal agencies. Read more about the controversy in The Washington Post and STAT

Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, have also changed in recent weeks after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework.

According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 13, peak demand for hospital resources occurred at the national level on April 10. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model. 

March 28
Colorado 

April 1
Vermont 

April 5
Washington 

April 6
Louisiana 

April 8
Idaho 
Illinois 
Michigan 
Nevada 
New York 

April 9
Delaware 
District of Columbia 
New Jersey 

April 11
Maryland 

April 14
Indiana 
Maine 
New Hampshire 
Ohio 
Wisconsin 

April 16 
Pennsylvania 
Tennessee 

April 17
California 
North Carolina 

April 18
Alaska 
West Virginia 

April 20
Hawaii 
Mississippi 

April 21
Alabama 
Montana 

April 25
Connecticut 

April 26
New Mexico 
Oregon 

April 27
Virginia 

April 28
Massachusetts 
Minnesota 
Missouri 

April 29
Kansas
Kentucky 
North Dakota 
Texas

April 30
Arizona 
Oklahoma 
South Carolina 

May 1
Georgia 
South Dakota 

May 2
Arkansas
Rhode Island 
Utah 

May 3
Florida 
Nebraska 

May 5
Iowa 
Wyoming 

More articles on patient flow: 

Beaumont shuts down hospital to prepare for next surge of COVID-19 patients
Integris halts inpatient services at Oklahoma hospital campus
Kaiser, Dignity partner with California to open Los Angeles Surge Hospital

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