Mayo projects 12% rise in COVID-19 cases in next 2 weeks

COVID-19 cases are expected to increase nationwide over the next two weeks as the omicron subvariant BA.2 gains prevalence, modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic shows.

Forecasters project average daily COVID-19 cases will increase 12.1 percent over the next two weeks. The model projects this average will jump from 29,869 average cases March 22 to 33,480 cases by April 5. The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 9.1 cases per 100,000 population to 10.2 per 100,000 over the same time period.

Nationwide, COVID-19 cases have been falling since mid-January, CDC data shows. However, nine states have seen COVID-19 cases increase in the last 14 days.

The omicron subvariant BA.2 accounts for more than one-third of COVID-19 cases nationwide and more than half of cases in the Northeast, according to the latest variant proportion estimates from the CDC.

Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he would not be surprised to see an uptick in infections in the U.S. driven by the subvariant, though a major surge is unlikely. 

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values March 24 at 1:20 p.m. CST.


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