How an immediate boost in vaccination rates could affect hospitalizations, deaths over the next 6 months

A new simulation model involving 10 states predicted 19,500 fewer hospitalizations and 6,900 fewer deaths from COVID-19,  assuming daily vaccination rates increased by 50 percent in the last week of August 2021 and continued through March 2022.

About 344,341 total cases were averted in the model, according to the Oct. 5 analysis from The Commonwealth Fund. 

The simulation model involved five southern states in a declining trend that hit their peak number of cases in early September (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Texas,) and five northern states with cases trending upward at the end of September (Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.) 

Researchers used a previously developed COVID-19 transmission dynamics simulation model to forecast what would happen over the next six months if each state accelerated their number of vaccine doses administered by 50 percent above their rate in the last week of August. They compared this to a status quo scenario in which vaccinations continued at the August pace. 

The estimated number of hospitalizations potentially prevented by the end of March 2022 ranges from 65 in New Hampshire to 5,056 in Texas. As far as the number of deaths potentially averted, estimates range from 10 in New Hampshire to 1,441 in Florida. 

Researchers noted that while the model is based on a scenario in which vaccination rates accelerated in August, the findings indicate a significant number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths can still be prevented if vaccination rates increased immediately.


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