Daily US COVID-19 cases set to fall 20% in next 3 weeks, CDC models predict

Daily U.S. COVID-19 cases are expected to decline by about 20 percent, on average, over the next three weeks, according to CDC forecast models cited by The New York Times.

Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one. As of Oct. 18, CDC ensemble forecasts included 20 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.

The models tracked the number of new COVID-19 cases reported nationwide from Aug. 14 through Oct. 16 and forecasted new cases through Nov. 13. The ensemble predicts 157,000 to 704,000 new COVID-19 cases are likely to be reported for the week ending Nov. 13.

The nation's seven-day average for COVID-19 cases have been declining for five consecutive weeks, according to CDC data published Oct. 22.


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