US COVID-19 cases to jump 64% in 2 weeks, Mayo projects

Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 64.5 percent over the next two weeks as the omicron subvariant BA.2 continues to spread nationwide, modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic shows.

Forecasting suggests the nation's daily average cases will jump from 22,748.7 on April 3 to 37,419 by April 17. The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 8.8 cases per 100,000 population to 11.4 per 100,000 over the same time period.

The projections coincide with BA.2's gaining prevalence in the U.S. The subvariant accounted for about 55 percent of new COVID-19 cases nationwide in the week ending March 26, according to the latest variant proportion estimates from the CDC. 

Two more forecasts to know:

Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to fall nationwide over the next four weeks, with 300 to 3,500 new admissions likely reported on April 22, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 15 modeling groups. For context, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 hospitalizations for March 23-29 was 1,564, a 15.8 percent decrease from the previous week's average.

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths will also decline over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 24 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,300 to 3,600 deaths likely reported in the week ending April 23, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 986,000 to 994,000 deaths.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values April 4 at 8:30 a.m. CST.


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