US COVID-19 cases to jump 10% in next 2 weeks, Mayo forecasts

While COVID-19 cases have been falling for more than 10 consecutive weeks, modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic suggests this trend will reverse over the next few weeks.

As of Oct. 2, the nation's daily case average was 46,696, marking a 24 percent decrease in the last 14 days, according to HHS data tracked by The New York Times. Mayo's forecast suggests daily average cases will jump 10.5 percent from 43,071 cases on Sept. 28 to 47,594 by Oct. 12. 

The projected increase comes amid warnings of a potentially severe flu season and amid the rising prevalence of the omicron subvariant BA.4.6. On Sept. 30, hospital leaders met with federal health officials at the White House to discuss how hospitals can prepare for COVID-19 and flu this fall. 

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Oct. 3 at 8:50 a.m. CDT.


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