Updated COVID-19 projections are out: The new peak dates in each state

Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected this week in the U.S., according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

When IHME first released its model, the only place where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan, China. The data from Wuhan formed the basis for IHME's estimation of the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths. That estimation is now based on data from Wuhan and seven locations in Spain and Italy where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked. The model has also been updated to use three different weighting schemes to better approximate the variation in potential policy impact across social distancing mandates. 

Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, also changed after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework. Access more information about the changes here

According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 8, peak demand for hospital resources will occur at the national level on April 11. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model. 

April 1
Vermont 

April 2
Washington 

April 4
Louisiana 

April 7
Michigan 

April 8
Colorado 
New York 
Ohio 

April 9
Delaware 
District of Columbia 

April 11
Illinois 
New Jersey 

April 12
Hawaii 

April 13
California 
Pennsylvania 
Wisconsin 

April 14
Idaho 
Indiana 

April 15
North Carolina 
West Virginia 

April 16
Mississippi 
New Hampshire 

April 17
Alaska 
Maine
Maryland
Nevada 
Tennessee 

April 20
Alabama 
Georgia
Kansas
Massachusetts
Montana
Virginia 

April 21
Connecticut 
Florida 
Kentucky 
Missouri 
New Mexico 
North Dakota 

April 22
Arizona 
Oregon 
Texas

April 23
Minnesota
Oklahoma 

April 24
South Carolina 

April 25
Arkansas
Rhode Island 
Utah 

April 26
Nebraska 

April 27
Iowa 
South Dakota 

April 29
Wyoming

More articles on patient flow:
Kaiser, Dignity partner with California to open Los Angeles Surge Hospital
20 states to face ICU bed shortages when COVID-19 peaks, analysis finds
NYC Health + Hospitals to bring on more than 3,000 additional inpatient beds by May




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