10 predictions on the impact of the 2014 and 2016 elections on healthcare and business
1. Republican gains will be moderate at best. Although Republicans are expected to retain control of the House and could gain control of the Senate, the actual number of new Congressional seats controlled by Republicans will not be overwhelming (e.g., political analyst Nate Silver predicts Senate Republicans may gain eight seats).
2. Potential Republican gains will result from two key themes. First, there seems to be dissatisfaction with the president, low approval rates and a general sense of woe in the country. Whether economically or security-wise, there is a not a terrific sense that the U.S. is moving in the right direction.
Second, the Republicans do not seem to be playing hard to the social right, and the Democrats are having a much harder time labeling the Republicans as so socially right wing as to be out of touch with the independents. Many Republicans seem to be running their campaigns in a manner my cousin Elise refers to as simply 'financial or economic Republicans with little social agenda.' This more moderate social stance seems to temper the ability of the Democrats to hard core paint the Republicans as engaged in a "war on women." The Democrats continue to push the theme, but it is apparently not resonating as fully with voters as it has in the last couple of elections.
3. The Democrats, for their part, are more cautious to more aggressive from state to state on how hard they wage the war against the wealthy. That is, the war on income inequality. Here it seems that even among the Democratic party, there is concern in the moderate part of the party that policies that are too focused on income redistribution or that are not supportive of business may ultimately not be that good for the country. We do see the Democratic party pushing hard minimum-wage initiatives and certain other proposals that don't align with pro-business. That stated, many of discussions on these and almost all issues that could be seen as negative to business are somewhat muted.
4. The ability of the Republicans to gain seats and not back track in 2016 is largely dependent on whether or not they overplay their hand. If they focus on issues like impeaching the President, issues that repel women voters, or on closing down the government, they will likely pay a price for it in 2016.
5. If Republicans attempt to hard core repeal the PPACA, we think this will also backfire in 2016. First, they won't be successful because the President will veto such repeal. Second, as to the PPACA, there are provisions such as the protection against losing or not obtaining health insurance due to preexisting conditions that are hugely popular. Third, certain of the sea changes in healthcare, such as the heavy growth of high-deductible plans, consumer-driven healthcare and health savings accounts are strong Republican tenets.
6. The Republicans will also likely suffer in 2016 if they revert back to either a boring candidate that can't connect with the populace or they bring forward a person who runs on a strong social agenda. Like the issue of Obamacare being the law of the land, many people in the middle view some of the core social issues as largely solved and that a good deal of the population doesn't have an interest in reopening the issues.
7. For the Democrats to win in 2016, they must show the middle of the electorate that they see growth and optimism for the country. They must be careful not to suggest they see the country, or its growth, as a zero sum game (i.e., they need not focus strongly on the politics of distribution). If the entire campaign is based on redistribution and attacking the wealthy, we will likely see this as heavily divisive and unlikely to prevail unless of course the Republicans field a poor candidate.
8. A Republican win in 2014, as stated above, will not have a huge impact on healthcare reform. While they won't admit it, Republicans love a couple of the policies coming into play because of healthcare reform, and ultimately, so will the American electorate. For example, Republicans support health savings accounts, high-deductible health plans, consumer-driven efforts and the concepts that Americans cannot be stripped of healthcare due to pre existing conditions. Thus, notwithstanding the repeal of certain parts, a good or great deal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is likely here to stay.
9. Republicans, if they have the chance to govern, will have to be very careful in how they reduce the debt of the nation so as not to do so too quickly and throw the country into a deeper recession.
10. Next week's midterms and the 2016 elections ought be fascinating elections to watch.