The study, commissioned by the American Hospital Association, sought to understand COVID-19’s effect on hospital finances. For the report, Kaufman Hall used historical hospital revenues and modeled different recovery factors to forecast 2021 hospital revenue.
According to the study, under a scenario in which there is a partial recovery of volumes, slow vaccine progress and cyclical COVID-19 surges, U.S. hospitals could lose $122 billion in revenue. This would include $64 billion in lost outpatient revenue, $41 billion in lost inpatient revenue and $17 billion in lost emergency department revenue.
But under a scenario in which there is consistent recovery of patient volumes, quick vaccine progress and a sustained decrease in COVID-19 cases, hospitals could face $53 billion in total revenue losses in 2021. This would include a $27 billion loss in outpatient revenue, $17 billion in inpatient revenue and $9 billion in emergency department revenue, according to the report.
“Whether recovery from COVID-19 in 2021 is relatively rapid or relatively slow, America’s hospitals will face another year of struggle to regain their financial health while providing necessary care and services to a nation that is continuing to experience the effects of an unprecedented pandemic,” Kaufman Hall said.
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