CommonSpirit develops predictive models for next COVID-19 surge: 5 details

Chicago-based CommonSpirit Health is using deidentified cellphone, public health and health system data to forecast COVID-19 surges nationwide.

Five things to know:

1. The health system is using predictive modeling tools to examine the COVID-19 infection rates for communities across the U.S., taking into consideration fixed data, including population and availability of healthcare providers, as well as variable data, including social-distancing relaxation and new cases.

2. The tools take information from multiple platforms to help the health system predict where the next surges of COVID-19 will be and prepare affiliated hospitals in those areas while also resuming all needed services.

3. CommonSpirit can generate a predictive outlook for about 75 percent of its markets, including Texas, California, Arizona and the Pacific Northwest. After examining the data, the health system predicts a new surge of COVID-19 cases coming within two to three weeks in these areas, as well as parts of the Midwest and Southeast, as social distancing is relaxed.

4. The predictive tools use deidentified cellphone data to show how much people travel outside their communities. The data collection is HIPAA-compliant and can't be associated with anyone.

5. CommonSpirit has 137 hospitals and more than 1,000 care sites in 21 states. The health system has about 25,000 physicians and 150,000 employees.

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