U of California-Irvine develops model to predict COVID-19 outcomes: 5 details

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Health science researchers at University of California-Irvine have developed a machine-learning model to predict outcomes for COVID-19 patients.

Five details:

1. The university announced its tool to predict whether COVID-19 patients will need ventilators or ICU has been available online for free since Dec. 17.

2. The model takes a patient's medical history into account when determining whether the patient is at high risk of needing additional care or can be sent home. Based on studies conducted at UCI Health, the tool has a 95 percent accuracy rate.

3. To develop the tool, researchers analyzed data from UCI Health COVID-19 patients dating to January. They finished an initial prototype of the tool in March and studied its effectiveness.

4. The machine-learning model used the data to create an algorithm that takes preexisting conditions, test results and demographic data into account to generate a severity score for COVID-19 patients. Researchers also took into account feedback from emergency medicine, hospital medicine, critical care and infectious disease physicians.

5. Researchers plan to expand the tool for other institutions for research and conduct a new study to see which patients will benefit from COVID-19 drug trials.

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