The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium made projections based on data gathered through Oct. 18 to examine trends in COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU patients, and estimated El Paso has an 85 percent probability of exceeding hospital capacity by Nov. 8. By comparison, Galveston has the second highest risk of exceeding hospital capacity at 33 percent.
The model projected COVID-19 cases would exceed ICU capacities in less than three weeks, and El Paso has a 96 percent chance of hitting that mark. Spencer Fox, PhD, associate director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, told local NBC affiliate KTSM that behavior modifications could change the trends, as the hospital data lags behavioral changes by about two weeks.
Researchers also estimated 2 percent of El Paso’s population has COVID-19.
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