U of Texas COVID-19 data model projects El Paso to exceed hospital, ICU capacity within 3 weeks


Hospital and intensive care unit beds are at risk of reaching capacity within the next three weeks, according to an Oct. 20 data report from the University of Texas at Austin.

The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium made projections based on data gathered through Oct. 18 to examine trends in COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU patients, and estimated El Paso has an 85 percent probability of exceeding hospital capacity by Nov. 8. By comparison, Galveston has the second highest risk of exceeding hospital capacity at 33 percent.

The model projected COVID-19 cases would exceed ICU capacities in less than three weeks, and El Paso has a 96 percent chance of hitting that mark. Spencer Fox, PhD, associate director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, told local NBC affiliate KTSM that behavior modifications could change the trends, as the hospital data lags behavioral changes by about two weeks.

Researchers also estimated 2 percent of El Paso's population has COVID-19.

More articles on data analytics:
Massachusetts to change COVID-19 data reporting to account for clusters
Tampa General aggregates data-reporting for 51 hospitals in COVID-19 data exchange
4 lessons pandemic taught nation's 1st chief data scientist


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