Vascular surgery is projected to have the highest shortages of physicians, the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis found.
The HRSA workforce simulation model assesses the adequacy of the nation’s projected workforce supply for 35 physician specialties from 2023 through 2038.
Across all specialties, there is a projected shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians by 2038. Only five of the 35 physician specialties are expected to see a surplus of workers. The shortages in some specialties can be mitigated by increasing the use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants, according to the center.
Here are the 35 specialties ranked by highest to lowest shortage.
Editor’s note: HRSA’s physician specialty projections do not include psychiatry as one of the 35 specialties modeled. A separate 2025 HRSA analysis of the behavioral health workforce projects a shortage of 36,780 adult psychiatrists by 2038, with supply meeting an estimated 50% of projected demand under a status quo scenario. The same analysis projects a shortage of 7,030 child and adolescent psychiatrists by 2038, with supply meeting 61% of projected demand. Both figures are expressed in full-time equivalents.
| Specialty | Adequacy 2038 | Shortage / surplus |
| Vascular Surgery | 66% | -34% |
| Ophthalmology | 72% | -28% |
| Thoracic Surgery | 73% | -27% |
| Plastic Surgery | 74% | -26% |
| Family Medicine | 76% | -24% |
| Hospital Medicine | 78% | -22% |
| Allergy and Immunology | 83% | -17% |
| Anesthesiology | 83% | -17% |
| General Internal Medicine | 83% | -17% |
| Geriatrics | 84% | -16% |
| Pathology | 84% | -16% |
| Cardiology | 85% | -15% |
| Nephrology | 85% | -15% |
| Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation | 85% | -15% |
| OBGYN | 86% | -14% |
| Pediatrics | 86% | -14% |
| Otolaryngology | 87% | -13% |
| Radiation Oncology | 87% | -13% |
| All Physicians | 88% | -12% |
| Neurological Surgery | 89% | -11% |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 88% | -12% |
| Radiology | 90% | -10% |
| General Surgery | 91% | -9% |
| Infectious Diseases | 91% | -9% |
| Rheumatology | 91% | -9% |
| Other Specialist | 93% | -7% |
| Dermatology | 95% | -5% |
| Hematology and Oncology | 96% | -4% |
| Colorectal Surgery | 98% | -2% |
| Gastroenterology | 98% | -2% |
| Neurology | 104% | +4% |
| Neonatology | 106% | +6% |
| Endocrinology | 109% | +9% |
| Critical Care and Pulmonology Medicine | 112% | +12% |
| Emergency Medicine | 116% | +16% |
At the Becker's 11th Annual IT + Revenue Cycle Conference: The Future of AI & Digital Health, taking place September 14–17 in Chicago, healthcare executives and digital leaders from across the country will come together to explore how AI, interoperability, cybersecurity, and revenue cycle innovation are transforming care delivery, strengthening financial performance, and driving the next era of digital health. Apply for complimentary registration now.