Vascular surgery is projected to have the highest shortages of physicians, the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis found.
The HRSA workforce simulation model assesses the adequacy of the nation’s projected workforce supply for 35 physician specialties from 2023 through 2038.
Across all specialties, there is a projected shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians by 2038. Only five of the 35 physician specialties are expected to see a surplus of workers. The shortages in some specialties can be mitigated by increasing the use of nurse practitioners and physician assistants, according to the center.
Here are the 35 specialties ranked by highest to lowest shortage.
Editor’s note: HRSA’s physician specialty projections do not include psychiatry as one of the 35 specialties modeled. A separate 2025 HRSA analysis of the behavioral health workforce projects a shortage of 36,780 adult psychiatrists by 2038, with supply meeting an estimated 50% of projected demand under a status quo scenario. The same analysis projects a shortage of 7,030 child and adolescent psychiatrists by 2038, with supply meeting 61% of projected demand. Both figures are expressed in full-time equivalents.
| Specialty | Adequacy 2038 | Shortage / surplus |
| Vascular Surgery | 66% | -34% |
| Ophthalmology | 72% | -28% |
| Thoracic Surgery | 73% | -27% |
| Plastic Surgery | 74% | -26% |
| Family Medicine | 76% | -24% |
| Hospital Medicine | 78% | -22% |
| Allergy and Immunology | 83% | -17% |
| Anesthesiology | 83% | -17% |
| General Internal Medicine | 83% | -17% |
| Geriatrics | 84% | -16% |
| Urology | 84% | -16% |
| Pathology | 84% | -16% |
| Cardiology | 85% | -15% |
| Nephrology | 85% | -15% |
| Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation | 85% | -15% |
| OBGYN | 86% | -14% |
| Pediatrics | 86% | -14% |
| Otolaryngology | 87% | -13% |
| Radiation Oncology | 87% | -13% |
| All Physicians | 88% | -12% |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 88% | -12% |
| Neurological Surgery | 89% | -11% |
| Radiology | 90% | -10% |
| General Surgery | 91% | -9% |
| Infectious Diseases | 91% | -9% |
| Rheumatology | 91% | -9% |
| Other Specialist | 93% | -7% |
| Dermatology | 95% | -5% |
| Hematology and Oncology | 96% | -4% |
| Colorectal Surgery | 98% | -2% |
| Gastroenterology | 98% | -2% |
| Neurology | 104% | +4% |
| Neonatology | 106% | +6% |
| Endocrinology | 109% | +9% |
| Critical Care and Pulmonology Medicine | 112% | +12% |
| Emergency Medicine | 116% | +16% |
Frequently asked questions
Which physician specialty faces the largest projected shortage by 2038?
Vascular surgery. The Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis projects the U.S. will have only 66% of the vascular surgeons it needs in 2038, a 34% shortfall. Ophthalmology (72%), thoracic surgery (73%), plastic surgery (74%) and family medicine (76%) follow.
How large is the overall physician shortage expected to be?
The Health Resources and Services Administration projects a shortage of 141,160 full-time equivalent physicians across all specialties by 2038. Overall, supply is projected to meet 88% of demand.
Which physician specialties are projected to have a surplus?
Five of 35 specialties are projected to have more physicians than needed in 2038: emergency medicine (116% adequacy), critical care and pulmonology medicine (112%), endocrinology (109%), neonatology (106%) and neurology (104%).
How were the specialties ranked?
The specialties are ranked by projected 2038 adequacy, meaning the percentage of demand that physician supply is expected to meet, from largest shortage to largest surplus. The figures come from the Health Resources and Services Administration’s Health Workforce Simulation Model, which projects supply and demand for 35 specialties from 2023 through 2038.
Why isn’t psychiatry included in the rankings?
The Health Resources and Services Administration’s physician specialty projections don’t include psychiatry among the 35 specialties modeled. A separate 2025 analysis of the behavioral health workforce by the agency projects a shortage of 36,780 full-time equivalent adult psychiatrists by 2038, with supply meeting 50% of demand, and a shortage of 7,030 child and adolescent psychiatrists, with supply meeting 61% of demand.
Cite this: Beckers Healthcare, 2026
