Daily COVID-19 cases to jump 42% by April 10 + 2 more forecasts

Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 42 percent nationwide over the next two weeks as the omicron subvariant BA.2 gains prevalence, modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic shows.

The model projects the nation's daily average cases will jump from 24,934.1 on March 27 to 35,449 cases by April 10. The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 9.1 cases per 100,000 population to 10.8 per 100,000 over the same time period.

The projections come as the omicron subvariant BA.2 continues to spread across the U.S., accounting for more than one-third of COVID-19 cases nationwide and more than half of cases in the Northeast, according to the latest variant proportion estimates from the CDC. 

Two more forecasts to know:

Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to fall nationwide over the next four weeks, with 100 to 3,900 new admissions likely reported April 15, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 11 modeling groups. For context, the seven-day average of new hospitalizations for March 16-21 was 1,827, a 21 percent decrease from the previous week's average.

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths will also decrease over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 20 modeling groups. The forecast projects 900 to 2,900 deaths likely reported in the week ending April 16, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 980,000 to 986,000 deaths.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values March 29 at 8:20 a.m. CST.


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