COVID-19 admissions to remain stable through June, CDC forecasts

COVID-19 hospitalizations may stabilize in June after climbing steadily since mid-April, CDC modeling suggests.

As of June 5, COVID-19 hospitalizations were still rising in 41 states and up 16 percent nationwide over the last 14 days, according to HHS data tracked by The New York Times. Nationwide, hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend in the next four weeks, with 1,200 to 10,900 new admissions likely reported on June 24, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 17 modeling groups. For context, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions for May 25-31 was 3,789, according to the CDC. 

The forecast comes as the agency confirmed a national dip in COVID-19 cases last week, the first decline seen since late March. As of June 1, the nation's seven-day case average was 100,684, an 8.5 percent decrease from the previous week's average, according to the CDC

COVID-19 deaths are expected to increase nationwide over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 22 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,800 to 5,400 deaths likely reported in the week ending June 25, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 1,012,000 to 1,024,000.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

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