The researchers — led by Katja Grace of the U.K.-based University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute — surveyed 1,634 machine learning researchers about how they think AI stacks up against human beings in a variety of tasks. Twenty-one percent, or 352 researchers, responded.
Here’s what year respondents predict AI will outperform humans for five tasks.
1. Translating languages: 2024
2. Driving a truck: 2027
3. Working in retail: 2031
4. Writing a best-selling book: 2049
5. Working as a surgeon: 2053
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