Mount Sinai rolls out predictive tool for COVID-19 mortality, focuses on 3 key clinical features

Researchers at New York City-based Mount Sinai Health System developed a COVID-19 mortality predictive model that can accurately and cost-effectively aid clinical staff in assessing COVID-19 patients' risk of death, according to a study published in the October 2020 issue of The Lancet.

Using what the research team called "the largest clinical dataset to date," they analyzed data from 5,051 Mount Sinai COVID-19 patients by deploying machine learning algorithms that focused on three clinical features: age, minimum oxygen saturation over the span of the medical encounter and type of encounter (inpatient, outpatient or telehealth). 

"Predicting mortality among patients with COVID-19 who present with a spectrum of complications is very difficult, hindering the prognostication and management of the disease," Gaurav Pandey, PhD, a member of the research team, said in the study. "We aimed to develop an accurate prediction model of COVID-19 mortality using unbiased computational methods, and identify the clinical features most predictive of this outcome."

The predictive model produced a vital sign that can be easily integrated into clinical staff's workflows, allowing them to continually assess COVID-19 patients' needs. The tool can flag patients with a high mortality risk so healthcare personnel can intervene more promptly to prevent death.

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