The annual number of deaths in the U.S. is projected to exceed the annual number of births beginning in 2030, according to a January report from the Congressional Budget Office.
The projections are based on existing laws and policies as of Sept. 30, as well as recent demographic trends, and serve as a benchmark for assessing how potential legislation could affect the size and structure of the U.S. population.
Here are six takeaways for healthcare leaders:
1. The population is expected to increase from 349 million people in 2026 to 364 million in 2056. The rate of population growth is projected to slow over the next three decades — from an average of 0.3% annually in the next 10 years to an average of 0.1% annually from 2037 to 2056.
2. The U.S. population is projected to stop growing in 2056, remain about the same size as the previous year, and then shrink.
3. The population is expected to become older on average between 2026 and 2056. The cohort of Americans 65 and older is expected to grow through 2036 at an annual average rate of 1.6% — faster than the average growth rates projected for younger cohorts. The group ages 24 and younger is expected to decrease in each of the next 30 years.
4. An older population presents a dual challenge for hospitals and health systems: increasing demand for more complex care and exacerbating workforce shortages as more Americans retire.
The aging trend is driven by longer life expectancies and baby boomers reaching age 65 or older by 2030, according to Maria Ansari, MD, co-CEO of The Permanente Federation and CEO of three of Oakland, Calif.-based Kaiser Permanente’s medical groups.
“This demographic shift is increasing demand for care while simultaneously shrinking the workforce,” Dr. Ansari told Becker’s in December. “C-suites will need to navigate reimbursement pressures, inpatient capacity constraints, and bottlenecks in post-acute care that can delay patient discharge. Care redesign will need to focus on more care at home and in the ambulatory space.”
5. Some healthcare leaders may be underestimating the aging population’s impact on hospitals and health systems, according to two CEOs who spoke with Becker’s in December.
“The baby boomer generation at 65 is a lot different than they will be at 85 and older,” Terry Murphy, president and CEO of Dover, Del.-based Bayhealth, said. “It’s a very large cohort of the national population, and it’s going to require a different type and intensity of care delivery in the communities across the country. There’s a lot more that needs to be done to ensure our communities are prepared from a geriatric or senior care perspective.”
6. Net immigration — the number of people who move to the U.S. minus those who leave — is expected to become an incredibly important driver of population growth in the coming years, according to the CBO.
Immigrants make up 27% of U.S. physicians and surgeons, 22% of nursing assistants and 16% of registered nurses. Hospital and health system leaders have warned that a new $100,000 fee tied to H-1B visa petitions, issued in September, could disrupt healthcare workforce pipelines.
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