Where COVID-19 cases are projected to rise, fall the most by July 4

Utah will see the greatest increase in COVID-19 case rates by July 4, while Delaware will see the greatest decrease in cases, according to forecasts from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. 

COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been rising in the U.S. since mid-April, driven by the highly transmissible omicron subvariants, though emerging data suggests this trend may be slowing. The nation's seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases was 108,215 as of June 27, marking just a 1 percent increase in the last 14 days, according to data tracked by The New York Times. Mayo Clinic's COVID-19 map forecasting tool projects the nation's case rate will rise slightly from 33.6 cases per 100,000 on June 26 to 34.8 per 100,000 on July 4.  

COVID-19 case trends are just one measure of virus activity and likely represent an undercount given the increasing use of rapid, at-home COVID-19 tests. Hospitalizations were up 6 percent nationwide in the last 14 days, with a daily average of 31,720 people hospitalized with COVID-19 as of June 27 according to the Times.

Becker's calculated the rate at which COVID-19 case rates are expected to increase or decrease between June 26 and July 4 using current and predicted figures from Mayo Clinic's tool.

Five states projected to see the largest jump in daily cases by July 4: 

  1. Utah: 63 percent increase
  2. Oklahoma: 57 percent increase
  3. Mississippi: 36 percent increase
  4. South Dakota: 32 percent increase
  5. Texas: 31 percent increase

Five states projected to see the largest fall in daily cases by July 4: 

  1. Delaware: 28 percent decrease
  2. Maine:  25 percent decrease
  3. New Hampshire: 22 percent decrease
  4. Massachusetts: 22 percent decrease
  5. Rhode Island: 22 percent decrease

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. Forecasts were unavailable for Alaska and Hawaii. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in the calculations in this table. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values at 9:30 a.m. CDT June 28.


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