US surpasses 1 million COVID-19 deaths, and 3 forecasts to know

More than 1 million people in the U.S. have died from COVID-19, a grim milestone the U.S. crossed May 16, CDC data shows. 

As of May 16, 1,000,292 people have died from COVID-19 since 2020, according to death certificate data tracked by the CDC. COVID-19 was listed as the underlying cause of death for about 90 percent of these deaths. In the remainder, the virus was listed as a contributing cause of death. 

The tally comes as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are increasing nationwide, fueled by the highly transmissible omicron subvariants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1. 

Three COVID-19 forecasts to know:

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to increase over the next four weeks, with 900 to 10,200 new admissions likely reported June 3, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups.

While hospitalizations are increasing, the nation's current seven-day average (2,629) is still far lower than the more than 20,000 new admissions seen at the height of the omicron surge, according to data tracked by The New York Times.

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 161.4 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 61,140.7 cases on May 15 to 159,852 by May 29. During the omicron surge, this figure hit a peak of more than 800,000, according to data tracked by The New York Times. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 28.2 cases per 100,000 population to 48.7 per 100,000 over the same period.

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths are expected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 21 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,700 to 6,700 deaths likely reported in the week ending June 4, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 1,005,000 to 1,018,000.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values May 17 at 9:10 a.m. CDT.


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