COVID-19 cases to fall through mid-August, Mayo forecasts

COVID-19 cases are expected to decrease nationwide over the next two weeks, even as the highly transmissible omicron subvariant BA.5 accounts for more than 80 percent of infections, modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic shows.

Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to decrease 2.6 percent in the next two weeks, marking the first time the health system's model is forecasting a decline in cases since March. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will fall from 110,571.6 cases on Aug. 5 to 107,662 by Aug. 19. This figure hit a peak of more than 800,000 during the last omicron surge, according to data tracked by The New York Times

The nation's case rate is also expected to decrease from 35.8 cases per 100,000 population to 32.8 over the same period.

COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths will likely remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, according to the CDC's ensemble forecasts. 

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Aug. 8 at 11:15 a.m. CDT.


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