COVID-19 admissions to rise through early December, CDC forecasts

The CDC is projecting an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations for the first time since July, national disease modeling shows. 

Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to increase nationwide over the next four weeks, with 2,000 to 9,000 new daily admissions likely reported on Dec. 9, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 15 modeling groups. 

The nation's seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 3,330 as of Nov. 11, down slightly from 3,374 the previous week, CDC data shows. 

Two more forecasts to know: 

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 51.5 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Rochester Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 37,912.7 cases on Nov. 18 to 57,441 by Dec. 2. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 12.9 cases per 100,000 population to 17.5 over the same period.

Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 13 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,000 to 4,400 deaths likely reported in the week ending Dec. 10, which translates to a daily total of 142.9 to 628.6.

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 286 as of Nov. 20, down 10 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Nov. 21 at 8:45 a.m. CDT.

 

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