Pharmaceutical prices are projected to increase 3.54% in 2027, up 0.70 percentage points from Vizient’s winter 2026 forecast, according to a July 27 report from the company. The projection excludes pharmaceutical tariffs because of uncertainty at the time of the analysis.
The increase marks a reversal after two straight forecasts of easing pharmacy inflation. Vizient’s winter 2026 outlook, released in February, had pegged pharmacy price growth at 2.84%, down from 3.35% the report projected the previous summer, and marking the first time in more than a decade that pharmacy wasn’t hospitals’ fastest-growing non-labor expense. That moderation was tied largely to biosimilar competition and early effects of Medicare drug price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act. The latest report suggests those cost pressures are no longer offsetting other drivers of pharmacy spend.
The forecast also lands against a backdrop of rising overall drug spending. U.S. prescription drug spending climbed 12.7% to $915.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to surpass $1 trillion in 2026, with hospital drug spending alone expected to grow 4% to 6%. GLP-1 drugs accounted for $131.9 billion of that spending, or 14% of the total, while oncology therapies remained the largest and fastest-growing category.
Here are three things to know from Vizient’s latest report:
- Vizient projected price increases of 2.85% for acute care, 3.64% for ambulatory care and 4.04% for specialty and complex medications between Jan. 1, 2027, and Dec. 31, 2027. The company said pharmacy spending is increasingly being driven by utilization, reimbursement, product mix and care delivery rather than drug acquisition costs alone.
- Oncology represented 25.59% of Vizient Program Participant pharmacy spending, while autoimmune and inflammatory conditions accounted for 23.39% of purchases and are projected to see 4.10% price growth.
- Vizient said health systems should consider utilization growth, reimbursement changes and care delivery shifts, in addition to projected price inflation, when developing pharmacy budgets.
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