The problem? “They measure the public’s initial response to ideas and words, and proposals such as single payer or ACA repeal that people associate with candidates — but they don’t tell us much about the likely level of support for a policy if there is a real debate about legislation before Congress, with winners and losers laid bare,” Drew Altman, PhD, president and CEO of the Kaiser Family Foundation, wrote for The Wall Street Journal.
As Dr. Altman wrote, framing is everything and that is why it is so hard to accurately predict what people would do if they had the option to repeal the ACA or if they had a viable option to install in its place. Opinions can change based on the argument presented and the clout and credibility of the person presenting the argument.
Dr. Altman gives the example of a Kaiser Family Foundation poll that found half of respondents support single-payer healthcare, but if it was presented as a policy that would eliminate the ACA or give the government too much control, less than a third still supported it. On the other hand, if the single-payer plan was said to ensure healthcare was a basic right, support jumped over 60 percent, Dr. Altman wrote.
Considering how partisan the argument is about healthcare, polls can neither show an accurate picture of public sentiment nor predict what the public would actually do in a vote, according to Dr. Altman.
Read the full blog here.
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