CBO may have overestimated uninsured under BCRA

Outdated data projections may have led the Congressional Budget Office to overestimate the number of people who would lose insurance under the Better Care Reconciliation Act, according to Politifact.

In June, the CBO projected 22 million people would lose coverage under the BCRA, with that projection based on March 2016 estimates of 18 million Americans covered by plans bought on the ACA exchanges. However, more recent data from January 2017 indicates only 11 million were covered. Using the more recent data would lower the CBO's BCRA projections, but it is unclear by how much.

Most of the coverage lost under the BCRA would come from a rollback of Medicaid expansion, with roughly 15 million Medicaid enrollees losing coverage.

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