Recent Medicaid policy changes will result in 1,484 additional deaths and nearly 100,000 preventable hospitalizations per year, according to a study published July 16 in JAMA Health Forum.
Two weeks before President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, another study projected 16,642 premature deaths annually among adults, based on the House of Representatives’ version of the bill.
The Congressional Budget Office projects the sweeping policy bill will reduce Medicaid spending by around $900 billion, decrease enrollment by 10.3 million and result in 7.6 million uninsured individuals by 2034. Using the CBO’s projection and a higher-effect scenario, researchers from University of California San Francisco and University of North Carolina Chapel Hill quantified estimates on health outcomes and health system viability.
By 2034, the study predicts:
- Approximately 1,484 excess deaths, 94,802 preventable hospitalizations, 1.6 million people delaying care due to cost and 1.9 million cases of medication nonadherence.
- One hundred and one rural hospitals will be at high risk of closure. Federally qualified health centers could lose 5 million Medicaid patients and gain 1.9 million uninsured patients annually, creating an 18.7% reduction in revenue reduction ($3.3 billion).
- In the higher-coverage loss scenario, 14.4 million people losing Medicaid coverage would annually result in 2,284 excess deaths, 145,946 preventable hospitalizations, 2.5 million people delaying care and 2.9 million cases of medication nonadherence.
In conclusion, the researchers said the study has several limitations, including ongoing changes to statutory language, Medicare and coverage under the ACA.
