Researchers examined 14 drugs launched since 2012 — three cancer drugs, two cholesterol-lowering drugs, three hepatitis C treatments, two for obesity management, and one each for cystic fibrosis, heart failure, psoriasis and diabetes.
The study showed predictions were, on average, 11 times higher than the actual sales reported after drugs hit the market.
In one case, the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review predicted the annual cost of two PCSK9 inhibitors would reach $7.2 billion. Looking at initial quarters of reported sales, PHAR discovered the actual total to be around $83 million, representing a $7.1 billion overestimate.
“Overestimating drug costs by so much cannot lead to good decision making,” said Michael Broder, MD, president and CEO of PHAR. “In fact, it is likely that patients feel the negative effects of such predictions in the form of early access restrictions and higher copayments.”
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