COVID-19 cases projected to jump 54.4% by April 23: 3 forecasts

Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 54.4 percent nationwide over the next two weeks, according to modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic.

Forecasts suggest the nation's daily average cases will jump from 27,415.7 on April 9 to 42,342 by April 23. The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 9.4 cases per 100,000 population to 12.9 per 100,000 over the same period.

The forecasts come after COVID-19 cases increased nationwide last week for the first time since mid-January, driven by the highly transmissible omicron subvariant BA.2. The subvariant accounted for about 72 percent of new COVID-19 cases nationwide in the week ending April 2, according to the latest variant proportion estimates from the CDC. 

Two more forecasts to know:

Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 400-4,300 new admissions likely reported on April 29, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups. For context, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions for March 30-April 5 was 1,406, a 10.3 percent decrease from the previous week's average.

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths are expected to fall over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 22 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,200-4,000 deaths likely reported in the week ending April 30, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 990,000-999,000.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values April 11 at 9:15 a.m. CDT.


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