CDC forecasts drop in COVID deaths for 1st time since June: 4 takeaways

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The number of newly reported U.S. COVID-19 deaths will likely drop over the next four weeks, according to the most recent CDC estimates.

The numbers for reported and forecasted COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations were last updated Sept. 27. The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts of newly reported deaths come from 26 modeling groups, while hospitalizations are taken from nine modeling groups. 

Three other things to know:

1. The CDC is projecting 5,300 to 18,500 new virus deaths for the week ending Oct. 23. 

2. The national model predicts that a total of 724,000 to 753,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by Oct. 23. A total of 680,688 virus deaths have been reported in the U.S. as of Sept. 22. 

3. In a separate CDC forecasting model, the agency predicts that the number of new daily COVID-19 hospital admissions is also likely to decrease, with 3,000 to 10,700 new confirmed COVID-19 admissions likely to be reported Oct. 25.


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