3 COVID-19 forecasts to know this week

After weeks of projecting rising or stable COVID-19 deaths, the CDC said it expects deaths to fall through early March. 

The Feb. 16 projection is based on an ensemble forecast from 26 different modeling groups.  

The forecast projects 6,300 to 13,200 new deaths likely reported in the week ending March 12, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 955,000 to 977,000 deaths.

The projection is down from 5,800 to 21,700 new deaths expected in the week ending March 5.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Two more forecasts to know:

1. Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to fall nationwide over the next four weeks, with 900 to 11,600 new admissions likely reported March 11, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 14 modeling groups.

For reference, the seven-day hospitalization average for Feb. 9-15 was 8,642, a 28.8 percent decrease from the previous week's average. 

2. The nation's daily COVID-19 case rate is expected to fall 45 percent over the next two weeks, according to predictive modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. As of Feb. 19, the nation's average daily COVID-19 case rate was 34.6 per 100,000 people. Mayo Clinic's modeling predicts this rate will fall to 18.9 per 100,000 by March 5. 

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values on Feb. 21 at 8:25 a.m. CST. 

 

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