COVID-19 deaths will be stable through February + 2 more forecasts

U.S. COVID-19 deaths may remain stable through the end of February, hitting up to 978,000 total deaths, according to ensemble forecasts the CDC published Feb. 7.

The forecast — based on 27 different models from various academic institutions — projects 5,800 to 21,700 new deaths likely reported in the week ending March 5. This would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 942,000 to 978,000 deaths.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling but cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Two more forecasts to know:

1. Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to fall in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., over the next four weeks, with 1,000 to 11,800 new admissions likely reported March 4, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 13 modeling groups.

For reference, the seven-day hospitalization average for Feb. 2-8 was 12,099, a 25.4 percent decrease from the previous week's average. 

2. The nation's daily COVID-19 case rate is projected to fall 51 percent over the next two weeks, according to predictive modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. As of Feb. 11, the nation's average daily COVID-19 case rate was 61.4 per 100,000 people. Mayo Clinic's modeling predicts this rate will fall to 29.9 per 100,000 by Feb. 25. 

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values on Feb. 14 at 8:45 a.m. CST. 


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