An early flu season is showing up in pharmacy data, with more antiviral prescriptions and higher cold and flu purchases than at this point last year, according to company data from Walgreens and GoodRx.
Here are five things to know:
- GoodRx’s tracker, updated Nov. 3, shows flu antiviral fills at about 0.35% of all fills in the latest week, roughly three and a half times the average of about 0.10% for the prior 11 seasons at the same point. The rate rose sharply over the past three weeks, from about 0.14% to 0.35%. GoodRx started this season’s chart Sept. 20, ahead of its usual early October start, to capture early activity.
- GoodRx said fills typically rise in December and peak in February and March, and that an early rise before December can signal an early season, as in 2022-23. Fills for Tamiflu were 11.5 times higher in early November 2022 than a year earlier, reaching 0.33% of fills as of Nov. 1. GoodRx cautioned that fills cannot show how many people had the flu, whether patients took the drug or why someone did not fill a prescription.
- Walgreens said Oct. 21 that flu activity is tracking about four weeks ahead of recent seasons, with cases rising across many western states and Florida. Epic Research found flu rates reached the same level seven weeks earlier than in the past two seasons.
- Walgreens is dispensing more flu antiviral prescriptions than at this point last year and reported double-digit year-over-year increases in cold and flu medications, at-home COVID-19 and flu tests, cough drops and tea.
- Hospitals are also seeing the early start. Seattle-based Seattle Children’s reported an early surge, and fill data offered a signal last season, when Tamiflu fills rose slightly alongside cases.
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