Over the next four decades, health insurance premiums are set to grow by roughly 90 percent under current law, even after accounting for inflation and economic growth, according to an analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
For the analysis, researchers from the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia studied how a single-payer healthcare system would affect premiums, payroll and deficits.
Under the current system, the researchers said excessive cost growth in the private system will drive healthier workers, even with hefty employer subsidies, to drop their healthcare coverage. According to the analysis, by 2060, the percent of the population without health insurance will grow to 27 percent under the current law.
As more healthy people leave the insurance pool, premiums will rise faster and result in a mini "price spiral," the researchers said.
"We project that a shift to a mandatory single-payer system (Medicare for All) increases life expectancy by almost two years, grows the population size by 3 percent, and increases worker productivity through improved health, before macroeconomic feedback effects," the researchers said. However, they noted how the program is funded will have a critical effect on the economy.
Review the report here.
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