Why 40-somethings? Here are four things to know about the golden age for productivity, based on the Bloomberg report.
1. Bloomberg credits economist James Feyrer, PhD, with the discovery that the number of people ages 40 to 49 is associated with the overall economic output per hour of work. “A 5 percent increase in the size of this cohort over a ten year period is associated with a 1-2 percent higher productivity growth in each year of the decade,” Dr. Feyrer wrote in 2005, according to the report.
2. The 40-something cohort has been diminishing in recent years, but the International Labor Organization expects this trend to bottom out in 2020, according to the report. At that point baby boomers’ children will start to age into their 40s, which, based on Dr. Feyrer’s theory, should lead to an increase in productivity.
3. Many are skeptical that 40 is the most productive decade. In particular, Bloomberg cites the National Research Council’s Committee on the Long Run Macroeconomic Effects of the Aging U.S. Population, which in 2012 declared Dr. Feyrer’s theory “implausible.”
4. However, others say there is more research to back up the theory. Jason Furman, PhD, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, told Bloomberg additional research conducted since 2012 backs Dr. Feyrer’s theory. Dr. Furman said the real question is finding out why 40-somethings have the perfect combination of experience and creativity, according to the report.
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