Medical school enrollment expected to grow 29% from 2002 to 2019

To counter the growing physician shortage, the American Association of Medical Colleges recommended in 2006 a 30 percent increase in first-year medical school enrollment by 2015, based on 2002 enrollment levels.

While this goal has not been met — enrollment has increased by about 23 percent — an annual AAMC survey projects first-year medical school enrollment will be just 130 positions short of this goal by the 2019-2020 academic year. Survey results project enrollment will hit 21,304 positions by this time, a 29.2 increase from the 16,488 first-year enrollees in 2002-2003.

In addition to these results, the survey also found medical schools are increasingly concerned with the number of clinical training and residency opportunities. Approximately 87 percent of survey respondents reported concern about clinical training sites and primary care preceptors, while 71 percent reported residency capacity as a major or moderate concern.

Meanwhile, first-year enrollment at DO-granting medical schools is expected to increase 162 percent from 2002-2003 to 2019-2020, according to the report. Combined with MD-granting schools, first-year enrollment will increase 49 percent by 2019-2020 from 2002-2003.

 

More articles on integration and physician issues:

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