Trump's healthcare plan would increase uninsured by 18M, but save billions of dollars

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's "Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again" would upend most of the recent healthcare reforms we have seen during the Obama Administration — which would have a sweeping impact on health insurance coverage, premiums, access, medical productivity and budget, according to an analysis from the Center for Health and Economy.

The nonpartisan research organization ran a microsimulation based on the proposals included in Mr. Trump's healthcare plan, which include selling health insurance across state lines and making health insurance premiums tax deductible for individuals.

Here are H&E's key findings.

1. Mr. Trump's healthcare plan would cause 18 million more Americans to lose insurance in 2017, due to his plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act, its premium tax credits and Medicaid expansion. H&E predicted the ranks of uninsured would also grow to 13 million above the current baseline by 2026.

2. Premiums would decrease across all plan categories for both single and family coverage. H&E says this would be the result of repealing actuarial rating restrictions, deductible restrictions, the individual mandate, Essential Health Benefits and barriers to insurance sales across state lines.

3. Medical productivity would increase by 2 percent over the current baseline, according to H&E. This estimate is based on a Medical Productivity Index for the under-65 patient population. The center attributes the increase in productivity to a shift in beneficiaries from employer-sponsored plans to individual plans, which would require more cost sharing and in turn would result in more price-conscious decisions among patients.

4. Provider access is expected to increase 11 percent by 2026 under Mr. Trump's plan. This estimate was based on the assumption that there would be an increase in enrollment in catastrophic coverage plans under Mr. Trump's healthcare plan, which offer a wider network of providers.

5. Mr. Trump's healthcare plan would decrease the federal deficit by $583 billion in the next decade. This estimate is based solely on provisions directly related to health insurance coverage. Thus, it does not include the impact of the medical device tax and the health insurers' fee that would be repealed under the ACA with Mr. Trump's plan.

Read the full analysis here.


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