Roughly 10,000 Americans could die each year from the loss of insurance coverage that will come from the repeal of the individual insurance mandate included in the Republican tax bill, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, PhD, writes in an op-ed for The Washington Post.
Dr. Summers cites a study from The New England Journal of Medicine, which estimates that for every 830 people who gain insurance, one life will be saved. The CBO estimates 13 million people will lose insurance coverage because of the repeal, and even if one adjusts for the fact that this group will be slightly healthier than the average patient, Dr. Summers estimates 10,000 people will die as a result of lost coverage.
"Some may argue that any loss in healthcare resulting from a repeal of the mandate is voluntary, and that families should have the freedom to make choices about optimal health coverage," Dr. Summers writes. "I think this ignores two realities. First, for many, the loss of health insurance will not be voluntary: They will lose coverage because premiums will increase, pricing them out of the market. Second, I take seriously the insights of behavioral economics, which suggest that irrational actors may make choices that will lead to worse health outcomes and higher mortality rates."
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