Johns Hopkins study finds wearables reliably predict mortality risk

Wearable accelerometers outperform patient surveys and other traditional methods not only at measuring physical activity, but also in predicting five-year mortality risk in older adults, a recent study from Baltimore-based Johns Hopkins Medicine suggests.

In the study, researchers evaluated 33 traditional predictors of five-year mortality, including cholesterol level, smoking status, comorbidities and physical activity. To assess the latter, researchers examined data from previous studies in which adults with an average age of about 66 wore accelerometer devices for a week. This data was compared with those subjects' five-year mortality rates.

Researchers concluded that physical activity was 30 percent more accurate at indicating mortality risk than smoking status, and a 40 percent better indicator than stroke and cancer history. Specifically, physical activity level between the hours of 12 p.m. and 2 p.m. was found to be the highest predictor of five-year mortality risk.

"People can overestimate or underestimate on surveys how much and when they move, but wearable devices provide accurate data that cuts through the bias and guesswork," said Jacek Urbanek, PhD, assistant professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and a member of the research team. "The technology is readily available and relatively inexpensive, so it seems feasible to be able to incorporate recommendations for its use into a physician's practice."

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