In 2026, the U.S. prescription drug market is predicted to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, and GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic, Zepbound and Wegovy are the primary drivers of this growth.
GLP-1s accounted for 14% of U.S. drug spending last year, with these drugs costing $131.9 billion of the $915.2 billion spent on all prescriptions in 2025. In 2023, Goldman Sachs researchers projected the global obesity market alone could hit $100 billion by 2030.
A more recent analysis from Statista forecast three GLP-1 medications for obesity, including one awaiting FDA approval, will alone earn $58.8 billion in 2030. Sixteen additional GLP-1s could enter the U.S. market between 2026 and 2029, according to another report.
The GLP-1 market is accelerating — and three developments in recent months could define its next chapter. Here is what hospital and health system leaders need to know.
1. GLP-1 weight loss pills
The FDA approved the first oral GLP-1 for weight loss, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill, in late December. The Denmark-based drugmaker — which is the most profitable company in that country — debuted the daily pill in the U.S. market in early January. The drug quickly netted more than 170,000 patients in the first three weeks.
Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 for weight loss, Foundayo, gained FDA approval April 1 and launched five days later. The company has not published prescription fill rate data, but if it follows predictions for other Eli Lilly-branded GLP-1s such as Mounjaro and Zepbound, Foundayo could outpace the Wegovy pill launch.
Prior to these approvals, the only available GLP-1 medications indicated for weight loss were in injectable presentations. The two daily oral drugs could expand the treatment population.
2. Expanded Medicare coverage
Medicare will begin covering weight loss drugs in July under a pricing agreement the federal government announced last fall.
The agreements with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk apply most-favored-nation pricing to drugs treating obesity, diabetes and related conditions. The monthly Medicare price for Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound will be $245, with patients paying a $50 monthly copay.
A bridge program will give eligible Medicare Part D beneficiaries access to weight-loss GLP-1s beginning July 1 and ending December 2027.
The longer-term coverage picture is murkier. CMS is holding off on its voluntary Balance model pilot for Medicare Part D, a program intended to move GLP-1 obesity coverage into Part D permanently. The program would have featured price negotiations and lifestyle-oriented initiatives, but it required Part D plan sponsors representing 80% of Part D enrollment to apply — a threshold that was not met.
Adherence is an early concern. Sixty percent of patients over age 65 stopped taking semaglutide (Ozempic or Wegovy) within one year, with cost, side effects and muscle mass loss cited as contributing factors, according to a 2025 study.
As Medicare eligibility expands, health systems may see downstream shifts in chronic disease management, cardiovascular service lines and bariatric volumes.
3. Stricter compounding rules
The GLP-1 shortage era gave compounding pharmacies a legal — and lucrative — foothold. However, that window is closing.
After supply stabilized, the FDA directed compounding pharmacies to stop selling compounded semaglutide by April 22, 2025. Outsourcing facilities had until May 22 to cease production and distribution.
Enforcement escalated in early 2026. On March 3, the FDA issued 30 warning letters to telehealth companies, which the agency said are making false or misleading claims about compounded GLP-1 products. Over the past six months, the agency said it has sent thousands of letters to pharmaceutical and telehealth firms — more than over the last 10 years.
The FDA has also proposed excluding semaglutide, tirzepatide and liraglutide from the 503B bulks list, saying it did not identify a clinical need for outsourcing facilities to compound the three drugs.
In February, Hims & Hers launched a compounded version of the Wegovy pill at $99 per month — $200 less than Novo Nordisk’s self-pay price. The telehealth firm reversed course two days later following legal threats from Novo Nordisk and a Justice Department referral. Hims & Hers is now partnering with Novo Nordisk, which dismissed the lawsuit.
For patients who relied on compounded GLP-1s for affordability, the transition is abrupt. Whether the new lower-cost oral branded options can fill the access gap remains to be seen.
At the Becker's 11th Annual IT + Revenue Cycle Conference: The Future of AI & Digital Health, taking place September 14–17 in Chicago, healthcare executives and digital leaders from across the country will come together to explore how AI, interoperability, cybersecurity, and revenue cycle innovation are transforming care delivery, strengthening financial performance, and driving the next era of digital health. Apply for complimentary registration now.
