S&P Global Ratings estimates repealing the ACA's individual mandate would have a much more limited effect than what was projected by the Congressional Budget Office.
S&P estimates repealing the individual mandate to buy health insurance would increase the number of uninsured Americans by 3 million to 5 million and reduce the federal deficit by roughly $60 billion to $80 billion over the next decade. This is a much more moderate estimate than the CBO's projection of 13 million people losing insurance by 2027 and savings of $338 billion for the federal government over the next decade.
S&P believes the financial incentives of the ACA are a much more compelling reason to enroll in health insurance on the exchanges than to simply avoid the mandate penalty — therefore repealing the mandate would have a more limited effect.
"The individual mandate is currently weak, and repealing it may have a limited impact on the insured rate and the federal deficit, but repealing it will definitely reduce support for the ACA individual insurance marketplace," S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Deep
Banerjee said in a press release.
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