Using claims data on 41 million people from the Blue Cross Blue Shield Health Index, Moody’s Analytics created 10-year forecasts for millennials, who, born from 1981 to 1996, constitute the largest portion of the U.S. population and labor force.
The analysis revealed an increasing prevalence of physical health conditions such as hypertension and high cholesterol in millenials, which can manifest into more serious and costly conditions. The prevalence of behavioral health conditions, including major depression, substance abuse and hyperactivity, is also increasing among millenials. At this rate, millennial mortality is estimated to rise more than 40 percent compared to Gen-Xers at the same age.
This overall health decline is estimated to raise healthcare costs by up to 33 percent, a projection driven by expensive behavioral health treatment.
Poorer health among millennials also means higher unemployment rates and less income growth, ultimately leading to slower economic growth for the U.S. The effects would likely concentrate in areas already struggling economically, exacerbating income inequality and contributing to an even greater prevalence of behavioral and physical health conditions, the report’s authors said.
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