The unemployment gap between high school and college graduates ages 22-27 has reached its lowest level since the late 1970s, according to a Nov. 24 analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
Here are five things to know:
1. The unemployment gap has steadily declined since the 2008 financial crisis. After decades of higher job-finding rates for young college graduates, their rate is now roughly in line with that of high school-educated peers, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data from the Current Population Survey spanning 1976 to 2025.
2. The gap held around 5 percentage points for decades before increasing after 2008, when high school graduates struggled with re-employment. The gap then narrowed, except for a brief pandemic spike. As of July 2025, the 12-month moving average of the gap is at 2.5 percentage points — near the all-time low of 2.4 percentage points in March 2024.
3. Despite similar job-finding rates, young college graduates continue to hold an advantage in compensation and job stability once employed.
4. The convergence is not attributed to recent economic conditions or artificial intelligence trends. Instead, it reflects a decades-long decline in job-finding rates for young college graduates that began around 2000, according to the analysis. Contributing factors include a shift from “college-biased” to “education-neutral” labor demand and a growing supply of college-educated job seekers.
5. Hospitals and health systems have developed programs to recruit both high school and college graduates. Georgetown, S.C.-based Tidelands Health, for example, offers pipeline programs beginning in high school. Students can dual-enroll in college courses and are guaranteed a role after college graduation. “Earn and learn” programs are another avenue hospitals use to employ students before graduation, aiming to retain them long term.
