10 states facing largest RN shortages by 2036

Georgia could see the largest shortage of registered nurses by 2036, with an estimated 34,800 vacancies, according to a March report from the Health Resources and Services Administration, a federal agency of HHS.

The finding comes as health systems nationwide brace for the "silver tsunami" of older Americans reaching the age of healthcare consumption. At the same time, healthcare workers continue to retire. 

Additionally, while surveys suggest nurse staffing levels are improving, health systems continue to face recruitment and retention challenges.  

The HRSA report highlights nurse workforce projections generated using the agency's health workforce simulation. The projections span 2021 to 2036 and include data from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The 10 states with the largest projected shortages of registered nurses by 2036, per the report:

Georgia
Projected shortage: 29%
Projected vacancies: 34,800

California
Projected shortage: 26%
Projected vacancies: 106,310

Washington
Projected shortage: 26%
Projected vacancies: 22,700

New Jersey
Projected shortage: 25%
Projected vacancies: 24,450

North Carolina
Projected shortage: 23%
Projected vacancies: 31,350

New Hampshire
Projected shortage: 23%
Projected vacancies: 4,120

South Carolina
Projected shortage: 21%
Projected vacancies: 13,570

Maryland
Projected shortage: 20%
Projected vacancies: 14,700

Michigan
Projected shortage: 19%
Projected vacancies: 21,870

Oregon
Projected shortage: 16%
Projected vacancies: 7,410

Note: Projections  are in full-time equivalents, defined as working 40 hours a week. FTEs may differ from estimated  headcounts. Shortage percentages are calculated as one minus supply adequacy, which is projected supply divided by projected demand.

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