The nation’s supply of surgeons is projected to decline 4.2% from 2023 to 2038, while demand for surgeons will increase 12.8%, according to a study led by the Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine in Cleveland.
The American College of Surgeons published the study’s findings Sept. 25, adding it is the first unified assessment of the U.S. surgical workforce. According to the projections, the surgeon workforce in 2038 will meet 84.3% of the nation’s needs, equal to a shortfall of 27,940 surgeons.
Using HHS’ health workforce simulation model, researchers analyzed demographics, health utilization patterns and physicians per capita. They analyzed 10 specialties: colorectal surgery, general surgery, neurosurgery, ophthalmology, orthopedics, otolaryngology, plastic surgery, thoracic surgery, urology and vascular surgery.
Of those, four specialties face critical shortages, according to the study: vascular surgery (65.8% of need met), ophthalmology (71.8%), thoracic surgery (73.1%), and plastic surgery (74.1%). The study found the surgeon supply-and-demand issue will be starker in rural areas.
The researchers will present the findings at the ACS Clinical Congress Scientific Forum. A program committee reviews and selects research abstracts to be presented at the forum, but they are not yet peer reviewed.
